| Details | | Publication Date: | 1997-03-01 |
| Size | | Length: | 206 pages | | Height: | 9.8 in | | Width: | 6.5 in | | Thickness: | 1.0 in | | Weight: | 18.4 oz |
Publisher's Note
"It is rare to come across a book that can truly be called fascinating, but here is one."-New Scientist
Why Flip a Coin?
What's the best way to choose the right spouse? . . . How can I increase my chances of winning the office football pool? . . . By what process should I choose a candidate in the Senate race? . . . Could I possibly make more money playing poker instead of the stock market?
Using examples gleaned from everyday life, noted physicist H. W. Lewis explains what science has discovered about the rules that govern good-and not-so-good-decision making. Full of provocative insights into human psychology and behavior, Why Flip a Coin? will leave you laughing-even as you're learning.
"Should you read this book or not? If you don't read it you will surely miss out on Lewis's flinty wit and sharp sense of irony. The choice is clear. You needn't even flip a coin."-The Sciences
"Lighthearted but far from flippant."-Amazon.com (Science Editor's Recommended Book)
Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examples - from how to win a war to how to win the office football pool - H. W. Lewis presents a host of brain-teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas. Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game", he shows how to make a fateful decision when you don't yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners' Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival", he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high". Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision-making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision. You'll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life.
Industry Reviews
Lewis, a physicist with extensive background in decision and risk analysis, is well known for his work in the safety assessment of nuclear reactors, and for his earlier book, Technological Risk. Unlike other books on decision analysis, . . . Lewis's is written for a nonmathematical audience. . . . Unfortunately, the author fails to provide references to more advanced works on decision analysis or to books such as M.B. Gerrard, Whose Backyard, Whose Risk: Fear and Fairness in Toxic and Nuclear Waste Siting, which discuss decision making in particular areas of public policy. The book would have been greatly improved by the addition of an annotated bibliography. General readers; undergraduates.
Annotation copyright H.W. Wilson Company.
Taylor
[Lewis] explains clearly the concepts of game theory, predictability, utility, stability, competition, and regression. He is less successful, though, in convincing us that statistical decision theory would be embraced by real-world decision makers or lead to more rational decisions in legal, political, and public policy or the personal dimensions of life. The weakness of the book is its unsuccessful attempt at social commentary. The author oversimplifies, and often misunderstands insights into, human behavior offered by psychology, sociology, and anthropology. It is entertaining to read about game theories applied to jury deliberations or to choosing a mate, but are these examples practical? The book loses steam when the author strays from statistics into social phenomena.
Annotation copyright H.W. Wilson Company.
Abel
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