Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler (2005, Hardcover)

_The Long Emergency_ is a curious mix of fact, interpretation, prediction and personal bias. It discusses many of the interacting forces that impact individual and collective survival in the current time frame. The author believes most of these are driven by the availability of cheap energy (oil).

From early mention of the concept of an ecological "omega point" through concluding reflections on individual survival, the author covers a great deal of ground. Within are many buzzwords, socio-technico neologisms and chic phrases, including globalism, CEO [over]compensation, pollution, fear and greed, complexity and opacity, "privatizing profits, socializing costs," "ecological economics" and "collective hallucination of relative value."

A rather novel issue is how Kunstler extends the concept of entropy well outside the realm of physics, resulting in such usages as "entropic byproducts" and "entropy bunkers."

The book pushes many hot buttons, but the overall tone is dismal. Not until three fourths of the way through the book does Kunstler mention that it is a personal vision:

"My role as an author is to think about things the public is indisposed
to dwell on, and to present a framework for understanding a particular
set of challenges." [p 238]

This perception should have appeared in the beginning, as a qualification. Other shortcomings include:

- Cites are few and tend to be only from the lay press, rather than
from peer reviewed sources (or at least not directly from the
latter). Considering the veracity of the mainstream media, the
rigor of assertion or defense is less than satisfying.

- The general analysis tends to be "linear" or Malthusian. Critical
state analysis ("fingers of instability" and triggers of cascading
effects) is not discussed.

- The basic theme apparently does not reckon the possibility of a
Manhatten Project for survival, or an Internet-style technological
"end run" to develop and implement solutions. For example, robotic
mining of the moon and asteroids, coupled with space-based
manufacturing of orbital "shades" to address global warming and
introduce a new energy source.

- Not discussed is the how innovation can precipitate key advances in
the search for solutions (e.g., solar breeders, and solar pyrolysis-
catalysis facilities, etc.).

- Not mentioned is the enormous potential of widespread geothermal
sources, which still have miniscule market penetration. (Iceland
is a notable and very commendable exception.)

- Kunstler believes that the U.S. Southwest will be more severely
affected than other parts of the U.S. - despite the fact that this
region is the sandbox for solar insolation. (Where there is sun,
there is energy - which, ironically, is the principal topic being
discussed.)

- The book does not cover the concept of a "risk carry trade" for
energy sources (e.g., the immense political subsidy of the Price-
Anderson Act for the nuclear industry, and the huge economic
subsidy for ethanol production).

- In places Kunstler clearly exposes his politically liberal biases.
Some readers likely will be greatly offended. Regrettably, these
apparent biases call into question his perceptions on other facets
of the work.

Criticisms aside, the book is a good collection of notes relating to individual and collective survival. It will also challenge the objective reader...on several levels. -LK